October 21, 2024

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BJP'S HARYANA HURRICANE

LATE IN THE EVENING OF OCTOBER 8, even as the euphoria over the surprise victory in Haryana was still sinking in, Prime Minister Narendra Modi followed a tradition he has set in place after every important election win--appearing at the BJP headquarters in the national capital to address jubilant party workers. After the party agonisingly fell short of the majority mark in the Lok Sabha election in June, the mood had turned sombre and introspective. But now, with the miraculous `hat-trick of assembly wins' in Haryana and the creditable performance in Jammu and Kashmir, the josh is back among BJP workers Needless to say, the poll outcomes have rejuvenated the party cadre everywhere. The news was especially heartwarming for them as Haryana was one of the states where the party's Lok Sabha tally had been halved, down from 10 in 2019 to five this year. The result also turned on its head the theory that the `Modi effect' works better in a state in the national election than during the assembly poll. The template that the BJP followed in Haryana could be invaluable in the forthcoming assembly elections as well. Maharashtra is next in line and, as in Haryana, the BJP had not found it to be a happy hunting ground in May. The party and its allies won just 17 of the state's 48 parliamentary seats with an antagonistic Maratha community, factionalism and mounting anger against deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis all working against the ruling Mahayuti alliance. It had fared relatively better in Jharkhand, with the NDA winning nine of the state's 14 LS seats, but here again the BJP will have to work hard to regain the affections of the angry tribal communities while also reining in the massive factionalismWhat the Haryana win has demonstrated is that the party leadership is not averse to course correction. Also, that the party's Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) base

NOW FOR THE HARD PART

OMAR ABDULLAH IS THE FIRST to admit that winning the Jammu and Kashmir assembly polls was maybe the easy part. As vice president of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), he may have scripted electoral history with his party, along with INDIA bloc partner, the Congress, winning a comfortable majority. In doing so, they have thwarted the game plan of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to form a government on its own and anoint a BJP CM for the first time in J&K's history. But Omar is fully aware that unlike his previous stint as chief minister between 2008 and 2014, when he headed a JKNC-Congress alliance, his second coming poses enormous challenges. As he puts it, “In my first innings, I was CM of the most empowered state. But now J&K is the country's most disempowered Union Territory. Also, while the win is humbling, the expectations of the people are scary as they are enormous.” Set to be chief minister once again, Omar is acutely aware that his powers will be greatly curtailed this time around, especially since the Modi government had on August 5, 2019, abrogated Article 370, taking away the extraordinary autonomy J&K enjoyed, and reducing its status from a state to a Union Territory, apart from bifurcating Ladakh from it. More recently, the Centre amended the rules of the 'Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir' to ensure that Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha had even more administrative and legal powers. The new changes bestow on the LG the power to transfer IAS and IPS officers, control J&K Police and law and order, and have a say in the appointment of judicial officers, including the advocate general. The Anti-Corruption Bureau, prosecution matters and prisons will also be now under his ambit. In fact, before the election was announced, Omar had maintained that he would not contest as he had no intention of, as he put it, “waiting outside the LG's office to sign a file” even for the appointment of a peon. The other reason was that Omar had failed to win a parliamentary seat in the Lok Sabha election in May 2024, losing to the jailed Engineer Rashid, an Independent candidate, in the Baramulla constituency. But he relented after his JKNC colleagues told him that if the party was planning to participate in the election, his refusal to contest would doom their chances. POLARISED VERDICT What makes Omar's job even tougher is that the election has thrown up a deeply polarised verdict between the Kashmir Valley and Jammu. While the JKNC's individual tally of 42 included seven seats in the Jammu region, these were in the Muslim-dominated constituencies. The alliance was let down by the Congress, which won only one seat, also in a Muslim-dominated constituency, despite contesting 29 out of Jammu's 43 seats. Its five other wins came from seats in the Muslim-majority Valley. And even though the BJP did not win any of the 19 seats it contested in the Valley, it won all the Hindu-dominated seats in Jammu with a tally of 29. This means Omar will have to strive hard to win the confidence of Jammu where a majority of the Hindu community lives. Haseeb A. Drabu, a former J&K finance minister, believes that the election results have only added to the fissures between Jammu and Kashmir. As he puts it, “The two regions now share little else than a troubled past, having nothing in common: geographically, linguistically, culturally, ethnically, economically and in terms of religion.” Omar knows the gravity of that divide and is determined that his government will not just be a JKNC-Congress one but a dispensation that represents all sections of society. As he said, “The votes did not split in Kashmir and Jammu mountains. People