March 01, 2026

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INDIA'S TRADE RESET

THERE ARE DECADES WHERE NOTHING HAPPENS; AND THERE ARE WEEKS WHERE DECADES HAPPEN." THE COMMENT BY VLADIMIR LENIN, THE ARCHITECT AND FOUNDER OF SOVIET RUSSIA, IS A PERFECT SUMMATION OF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIA. THE WEEK FROM JANUARY 26 TO FEBRUARY 2 SAW THE INDIAN ECONOMY SURMOUNT LONG-PENDING AND SEEMINGLY INTRACTABLE CHALLENGES. First came an agreement for a trade deal with the 27-member European Union (EU), punctuated by the presentation of the Union Budget 2006-27 on February 1, capped by a late-night tweet from US President Donald Trump on February 2 announcing a trade pact that will lower tariff on specified Indian goods from a staggering 50% to 18%The three developments--the India-EU FTA, a Union Budget focussed on growth and capacity building, and the trade pact with the US--are set to brighten India's economic outlook for FY27. While much will depend on the fine print of the measures and how they are executed, policymakers, economists and industry stakeholders are hopeful these will remove uncertainty and boost investments and economic activityPrime Minister Narendra Modi said the deals have given the world confidence that it is moving towards stability and will expand opportunities for India's youth. The US and the EU are the world's largest economies with a combined GDP of $50 trillion and India's key export destinations. India's exports to the US were 2.2% of GDP and to the EU they were 2% of GDP in FY25"Closer trade ties with the US and the EU could provide a meaningful, though gradual, lift to India's growth by expanding market access and improving export competitiveness. Beyond trade flows, a more predictable relationship could boost investor confidence and attract export-oriented investments, reinforcing India's position as an alternative manufacturing and services hub amid shifting global supply chains," says Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist, Morgan Stanley. She says the benefits of trade deals are realised over years, contingent on drivers such as implementation, regulatory alignment and capacity building. "Without parallel progress on logistics, standards, and skills, the gains may remain incremental. While both the India-US and India-EU trade deals have the potential to boost India's economic prospects, their timing, scope and mechanisms will

INSIDE INDIA'S GIG ECONOMY

ON ANY GIVEN day in India's crowded cities, delivery riders flit through traffic guided by glowing screens, while apps quietly reshuffle labour in real time. Behind every delivery promise, instant help, or on-demand rides lies a vast workforce that doesn't clock in or sit on payrolls, yet powers some of the country's fastestscaling businesses. These are India's gig workers, the engine driving India's platform businesses and shaping what is called "the gig economy." The rise of the gig economy has created several issues, be it protests over worker rights or pay disputes, but at its core, it marks the emergence of a large industry. Quietly and effectively, the model has enabled start-ups to make labour costs a variable component, manage demand spikes, and scale up, creating millions of jobs along the way, even as questions around security and sustainability persistThe gig economy covers a lot of ground right from food delivery and quick commerce platforms that include Zomato, Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and Zepto to mobility players like Rapido, and home and beauty services companies like Urban Company, Yes Madam and SnabbitThese start-ups have grown big and command massive valuations. Eternal, which owns Zomato and quick commerce player Blinkit, has a market capitalisation of about `2.35 lakh crore, while rival Swiggy is at `71,000 crore. Urban Company, which got listed in 2025, has a market cap of more than `17,000 crore, with the unlisted mobility platform Rapido was valued over $2 billion in the last funding round. According to the Economic Survey 2025-26, the e-commerce segment employs 3.7 million gig workers, followed by logistics at 1.5 million. In all, the 12 million-strong gig economy workforce as of FY25 accounts for 2% of India's workforceFORMALISING INFORMALITY While India's workforce has long been dominated by informal labour, digital platforms are reshaping how this work is organised, discovered and paid for, bringing structure, predictability and scale to what was once fragmented and opaque"Unlike traditional informal jobs, which are often marked by uncertain demand and delayed compensation, platform work enables real-time demand discovery and outcome-linked earnings," Rapido says in a statement to BTAbhishek Sen, Partner, People Advisory Services, EY India, says gig work has always existed in India, from workers in factories and construction sites to drivers, among others. Now, platforms have brought scale with data that matches demand and supply in real time. "It has allowed companies to grow faster, while giving millions of workers easier access to income opportunities. The gig economy works in India because it solves two problems--businesses get scalable, cost-efficient labour, and workers get immediate earning opportunities in cities where traditional jobs haven't kept pace with migration," says SenAccording to the latest estimates from the CII Centre of Excellence on Skills report 2026, India's broader gig economy is nearly 60 million strong, projected to expand to 90 million by 2030. "The gig workforce helps platform businesses scale rapidly and profitably by converting