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FIRST, A REALITY CHECK. Since the Congress win in Maharashtra in 1990, the six assembly elections in the state in the past 30 years have not seen any party win a majority on its own, which means coalition governments have been the norm. The upcoming assembly election in India's commercial capital will be no different. Except that the state has seen three chief ministers and three governments in the past five years and splits in its two big regional parties, triggering unexpected political alignments and fragmenting the polity even further. Now, there are two major alliances in the fray. On one side is the ruling Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena, and the deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar's faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Taking them on is the INDIA bloc's MVA or the Maha Vikas Aghadi, which has the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), or SS(UBT), led by former CM Uddhav Thackeray, the NCP(SP) faction led by patriarch Sharad Pawar, the alliance's binding glue, and the CongressEach alliance and its constituents are engaged in a Maha battle for survival that will not only determine their individual fate, but also the future of the state and, in many respects, of the nation. Maharashtra is not just the state with the largest economy in the country, it also boasts the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats--48. In this year's general election, the ruling BJP's tally in the state dropped by 14 seats--from 23in 2019 to just nine in 2024. Combined with the drop in tally in the other key state, Uttar Pradesh, the saffron party's overall seat share dropped to 240, 32 short of a majority. It came as a major setback for Prime Minster Narendra Modi, who had hoped to command a majority in this third term as he had done in his first two. The recent results in Haryana came as a crucial salve, the surprise victory restoring confidence within the party. But Maharashtra is the big prize. A win for the BJP alliance will help Modi consolidate his hold at the Centre, but a defeat could throw his third term into uncertaintyThe stakes are high not just for the BJP but also for the other parties in the two alliances. A win for either of the two factions will determine who is the real Shiv Sena. Likewise for the NCP, where Pawar Sr and his nephew Ajit are locked in a bitter fight to gain control over their flock. For the Congress, after its shock loss in Haryana, if it can help the MVA oust the BJP-led Mahayuti, it will strengthen Rahul Gandhi's campaign to erode the BJP's political capital and be in a stronger position for the next big confrontation--the Bihar assembly polls. The 15 Lok Sabha seats that the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), won in Bihar make the BJP dependent on it for survival at the Centre. The domino effect of a loss for the BJP in Maharashtra and then in Bihar could hobble the Modi government and dent its ability to push its agenda for governance. In Maharashtra, the MVA goes into the election with a psychological advantage. On October 23, they also sealed a seat-sharing pact with all three parties fighting 85 seats each (the remaining seats may be left for the smaller allies). The opposition alliance swept 31 out of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats, leaving the Mahayuti licking its wounds with just 17. The Congress put up a surprisingly good show with 13 seats, while the SS(UBT) and the NCP(SC) won nine and eight seats, respectively. The devil, though, lies in the details. Despite the high number of seats the MVA won, the difference in votes polled by the two fronts was just over 200,000. And even though the MVA had a lead in 158 of the 288 assembly segments and the Mahayuti only in 125, the gap between the votes polled by the two sides would be less than 5,000 in 31 seats. Given that the issues in assembly elections are different from those in a general election, the votes in November could go either way, making it a truly tough fight.
ON October 19, as Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren ad dressed the media in capital Ran chi, he shared a key detail--that his party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the Congress will be contesting 70 of the state's 81 assembly seats, and ally Rasht riya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Left parties the remaining 11. But asked about the candidates, the CM responded with a mere "these things can't be disclosed yet"In contrast, the NDA betrayed no such hesitation in its declaration of seat sharing or candidates. The BJP will con test 68 seats, the Sudesh Mahtoled All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) Party 10, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) two, and Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party or LJP (Ram Vilas) one. The BJP has alr eady released its first list of 66 candidatesPoised to vote in two phases on Nov ember 13 and 20, with results to be an nounced three days later, this will be Jharkhand's fifth assembly election in its 24year history, a period in which it has seen seven individuals occupy the chief minister's chair on 13 separate occasions, and three bouts of President's rule. Former BJP CM Raghubar Das is the only one to have lasted a full term beginning 2014; the 2005 assembly saw three CMs in five years. No party has been reelected for a second consecutive termThat jinx will no doubt weigh heavy on Hemant Soren's mind as he sets out to seek reelection. Despite the alliance winning a majority in the state in 2019, it has been a tumultuous five years in power. Soren has had to move his MLAs to Chhattisgarh twice to prevent alleged poaching attempts. Then, in 2022, alli ance partner Congress had to suspend three MLAs after they were found with large sums of cash in West Bengal. Final ly, Soren, like the CMs of other nonBJP ruled states, found central investigative agencies coming after him as well. This saw him spend five months in jail in a case
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